Legislature(2015 - 2016)BUTROVICH 205
01/28/2016 09:00 AM Senate STATE AFFAIRS
Note: the audio ![]()
and video ![]()
recordings are distinct records and are obtained from different sources. As such there may be key differences between the two. The audio recordings are captured by our records offices as the official record of the meeting and will have more accurate timestamps. Use the icons to switch between them.
| Audio | Topic |
|---|---|
| Start | |
| SB128 | |
| Adjourn |
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
| += | SB 128 | TELECONFERENCED | |
| + | TELECONFERENCED |
SB 128-PERM. FUND: DEPOSITS; DIVIDEND; EARNINGS
9:01:44 AM
CHAIR STOLTZE announced the consideration of SB 128.
9:02:27 AM
RANDALL HOFFBECK, Commissioner, Alaska Department of Revenue,
set forth that the Alaska Permanent Fund Protection Act (APFPA)
is the component of SB 128 that allows the state to maximize the
efficiency of its existing wealth in helping to fund government
going forward. He related that in June, statewide meetings were
held to discuss the fiscal situation with Alaskans, to inform
and listen to them. He said Director Pat Pitney and he held over
50-statewide meetings and discussed standard-type government
solutions to the fiscal problem such as: new taxes, cutting
expenditures, and new wealth.
He said that there have been ongoing discussions related to how
to use the state's wealth, such as leveraging within the
Permanent Fund which led to the conclusion that using standard
processes could lead to fiscal stability, but it could not
remove the volatility out of the budgeting process. He specified
that using only new-wealth methods, the volatility could be
removed, but there was not enough wealth to do it by itself
because the state's savings were not sufficient. He set forth
that the two plans coalesced into the plan before the committee
today.
9:05:44 AM
CHAIR STOLTZE pointed out that the Governor's proposed
expenditure reductions were modest and the plan appears to focus
more on new revenue. He asked if the current budget proposal was
the right size and sustainable.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK said APFPA works and gets to a sustainable
budget; however, he specified that "it is written in pencil" and
the Governor was willing to talk about the balance between
spending cuts and new revenues in a discussion with the
Legislature.
9:07:44 AM
He addressed "The New Sustainable Alaska Plan," beginning with
APFPA, which is the focus of SB 128. He said the fund would be
able to generate about $3.3 billion toward resolving the state's
fiscal issue. He detailed that if the revenue from existing
taxes, fees and earnings on savings is added to that, the total
is about $4.285 billion. Last year's starting budget, minus one-
time savings, was about $5.2 billion, which leaves about a
billion dollars to make up.
CHAIR STOLTZE asked if there would be a commitment to making
cuts in the budget process in order to solve the billion dollar
deficit.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK replied that the Governor would be
actively engaged with the leadership in both the House and the
Senate to work toward a compromise.
SENATOR MCGUIRE asserted that she termed Chair Stoltze's
questions relevant because the public wants to know if the plan
maintains the current size of government. She opined that the
plan will be to stabilize the economy, but leave enough room for
a dialogue about the size and cost of government. She noted that
Wyoming was an example of a state with a budget half the size of
Alaska's. She stated that people want to know that cuts are
being made before their Permanent Fund dividend (PFD) is
lessened.
9:10:42 AM
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK agreed and noted that after talking to
people around the state, the price of admission to talking about
any other budget plans was "additional cuts." He asserted that
people are not convinced that the government is delivering
services as efficiently as it can; however, they also said they
liked the services the government was delivering.
CHAIR STOLTZE added that people from all walks of life should be
included in the discussion.
9:12:18 AM
SENATOR HUGGINS stated that he agreed with Senator McGuire. He
asserted that the Legislature and the governor should work
together to decide on the appropriate level of cuts. He referred
to a poll of his constituents who said they want the budget cut
before their PFD.
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI agreed that figuring out the appropriate
budget size was important. He said his constituents are asking
where the promised oil production is and noted that SB 21 was
enacted three years ago. He highlighted the oil production
decline which is having a dramatic impact on the state's revenue
and asked that the administration focus more effort on the
promised oil production.
9:15:26 AM
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK disclosed that he heard similar concerns
across the state. He described that after the "New Sustainable
Alaska Plan" is in place, Alaska will still have the lowest
taxes in the nation. He asserted that the state will continue to
have a dividend, grow its savings, provide essential savings and
have money to invest in future resource development.
He set forth that the three components of APFPA were as follows:
· Creates a sustainable draw from the earnings reserve,
· Minimizes oil price volatility on the general fund,
· Adjusts the dividend.
CHAIR STOLTZE asked if the dividend will be in a more volatile
position.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK replied that there would be discussion of
the dividend in the presentation.
9:17:44 AM
CRAIG RICHARDS, Attorney General, Alaska Department of Law, said
he would be defining the state's financial problem, discussing
the impacts that oil volatility has on Alaska's finances and the
options the administration examined in developing the APFPA.
CHAIR STOLTZE requested that the committee have a discussion on
the conflicting legal opinions.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS replied that Mr. Milks would address
the conflicting legal opinions at the end of the presentation.
He organized the discussion of the state's financial problem
into three categories: short-term, medium-term, and long-term.
He said the short-term problem is that the drop in oil prices
has resulted in large budget gaps. The medium-term problem is
that the state's savings will be spent in about four years. If
left uncorrected, the budget hole will damage Alaska's economy.
Dividends payments will be unsustainable under the status quo.
9:20:56 AM
He said the discussions of the fiscal problem by the Department
of Revenue, the Department of Law, and the Governor's Office led
to the question about what is causing the problem of boom-and-
bust cycles in Alaska. The conclusion was that Alaska's long-
term problems are caused by the state's undiversified budget
that is highly dependent on petroleum revenues, by the declining
trend in North Slope petroleum production, and by the
cyclicality of petroleum prices creating an unstable state
budget and economy.
9:23:13 AM
He showed three graphics that highlight the state's budget
problems due to: general fund revenue volatility, declining
revenue, disappearing savings, and potential need for
withdrawals from the PFD earnings reserve. He showed the state
budget's high level of correlation with the unrestricted
petroleum revenue and spending. The APFPA attempts to break the
pattern of high spending when oil revenues are high and cuts
when they are low and to get off the boom-and-bust cycle.
9:27:49 AM
CHAIR STOLTZE remarked about a concern regarding the eradication
of the Constitutional Budget Reserve (CBR) Fund.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK replied that the enemy of fiscal
responsibility is no plan. He said the state's plan up to now
was to save 25 percent of its wealth by putting royalties into
the Permanent Fund, which has grown to $50 billion. Any excess
earnings were put into the CBR for use during volatile times. He
concluded that the plan was to chase oil prices up and down. The
mindset in the proposed plan is to take the volatility out of
the entire system. The issue with the CBR is spending money
without a plan to sustain government's capabilities going
forward. He stressed that there is more stability in the cash
flow if the money is not subjected to a three-quarter vote.
9:31:42 AM
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK said in response to Chair Stoltze, the
administration is not trying to side step the constitution and
there would be a vote by the Legislature as provided for in the
constitution. He asserted that the goal is to stabilize cash
flow.
SENATOR MCGUIRE opined that moving the CBR into a statutory
place is an interesting philosophical discussion. She referred
to a legal opinion pointing to possible challenges about other
monies being put into the Earnings Reserve Account (ERA).
9:34:21 AM
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK explained that the plan works whether the
money resides in the ERA or the CBR, as long as the investment
process is similar in both places. He said the issue is that
when it is in the CBR, there is a little less certainty on the
annual draw because it is subject to the three-quarter vote. He
said it is not a fatal flaw if the money gets swept back into
the CBR.
CHAIR STOLTZE said he is trying to understand the mechanics of
the plan.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK deferred to the Department of Law to
address Senator McGuire's question.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS specified that Mr. Milks would address
that question. He echoed the idea that the Department of Law
believes that the CBR sweep is not necessary, but even if it is,
it is not fatal to the plan.
He turned to the long term problem the administration is trying
to address; addressing the high correlation between state
spending and petroleum revenues, which becomes less and less
feasible over time. Under declining oil production there is less
volatility to capture in the up years and the world of oil
prices is going to become more volatile.
9:37:11 AM
He addressed the subject of the commodities roller coaster and
highlighted a study by the International Monetary Fund from
October of 2015. The study was on commodity-based economies and
showed that Alaska is not alone or unique in its budget
challenges. It is different than the Lower 48 states, but
similar to many national governments with a high level of
dependence on one economy, such as oil or minerals.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS said the study looked at 85 economies
over three decades and found that government spending in
commodity-based economies tends to move up and down with
commodity revenue. He detailed that the study concluded that
pro-cyclical government spending stunts economic growth and a
stabilizing fiscal policy has the inverse effect, increasing the
GDP growth by 0.3 percent annually.
9:39:54 AM
He showed break-even oil prices for various oil regimes. He
revealed that Alaska's break-even oil price is at $109, which
compares to Russia and Saudi Arabia, but not to Norway or Kuwait
who have a much lower break-even price and, therefore, more
sustainable economies.
He concluded that well-managed petroleum economies have done one
of two things: enacted broad-based tax measures that make the
amount of petroleum revenue to the total budget small enough
that it lessens the volatility, or use sovereign-wealth assets
to smooth the volatility; examples of those who have broad-based
tax measures are Canada, Australia, and Norway, all who had
well-developed economies well before petroleum wealth came
online. Alaska is similar to a Middle Eastern or African country
in that it does not have the economic base to sustain revenues
once gained from oil. He suggested looking at economies such as
Abu Dhabi and Kuwait who use sovereign-wealth assets.
9:42:05 AM
CHAIR STOLTZE asked how the administration is looking at oil
prices.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS said he does not know, and even the
Department of Revenue's forecast is a straight line similar to
the current oil price. He expected a whole spectrum of oil
prices in the future, if history repeats itself.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK added that his view is similar. The
official position is that volatility within oil prices will
increase. He noted that shale oil has relatively low
expenditures to bring product on quickly at a price point of $60
to $80, which may put a ceiling on the projections, but could
also easily flood the market and depress the price. He suggested
that the long term, real price may be $50 to $70 with a lot of
volatility.
9:44:51 AM
CHAIR STOLTZE asked how long term.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK replied three to ten years.
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked if all projections are predicated on
the idea that oil production will continue to decline. He
questioned where the new production is that the industry
promised.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK noted the administration's forecasts are
based on meetings with the oil industry. He said he could not
address the broader question about promised production.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS added that the department's forecasts
are fairly conservative and relate to the status quo; they don't
project substantial new events, such as opening new fields. The
status quo is a declining oil base. He said the Department of
Natural Resources and others are optimistic that there is "some
to good" probability that there will be "new things happening."
9:47:38 AM
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK pointed out that even at $55 to $60 oil,
the state would need 1.6 billion barrels-a-day to balance the
budget. The status quo is at 500,000 barrels a day. He spoke of
a discovery in the Colville Delta similar in size to Alpine and
Kuparuk in the 100 to 200 barrel-a-day range; five fields that
size would be needed to get to a balanced budget.
SENATOR HUGGINS commented that a trait of a reasonable plan
includes bands of assumptions as well as the inclusion of known
data. He asserted that the administration is tasked with
synchronizing their assumptions and data.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK noted that an analysis has been run
looking at the impacts of potential returns on gas-line
investments and associated costs.
SENATOR HUGGINS requested to see the analysis Commissioner
Hoffbeck referred to.
9:51:33 AM
SENATOR MCGUIRE concurred with Senator Huggins. She stated that
the idea of a sovereign-wealth fund or endowment in order to
stabilize Alaska's economy is absolutely right. She said the
broader questions concern production and new revenues from
developments and the gas line. She requested information on how
to protect on the upside. She also said the gas-line plan must
be shared with the Legislature and explained as to how it fits
into the governor's financial plan. She suggested that there are
many other opportunities that will fit into the plan.
9:54:59 AM
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS said the administration has already
been working on the exercise of what more optimistic petroleum
outcomes would look like in terms of a royalty-based dividend
and in terms of the governor's financial plan and the state's
long-term fiscal health. He offered to present the information
to the Legislature.
SENATOR HUGGINS asked if the state's partnership in the gas line
is 25 percent.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK answered yes.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS noted that the partnership is subject
to the royalty-in-kind finding that the Alaska Department of
Natural Resources makes.
SENATOR HUGGINS opined that Alaskans need to understand how the
Permanent Fund might be used as a solution.
9:58:39 AM
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS highlighted a quote regarding the
Permanent Fund from Governor Hammond, "I wanted to transform oil
wells pumping oil for a finite period into money wells pumping
money for infinity." He said the administration wants to figure
out a way to optimize the pumping of the money for infinity.
He related that the administration also wants to spend the
Permanent Fund earnings sustainably by preserving an appropriate
amount of wealth across generations going forward and using
financial assets to sustain a level of government that could
also be maintained equitably across generations. He defined
"sustainable" as protecting the constitutionally protected
corpus, making sure the earning reserve has durability, and
includes inflation proofing.
CHAIR STOLTZE asked if inflation proofing would require an
appropriation or would be part of the fund management.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS replied that Chair Stoltze's question
would be answered in a moment. He explained that the cash flows
in APFPA are very similar to what they are now. Under the
existing model, the Permanent Fund corpus produces statutory-net
income to the earnings reserve, and out of the earning reserve
inflation proofing goes back to the corpus and dividends come
out. Over time, to the extent that dividend payments and
inflation proofing is less than the statutory net income, the
earnings reserve grows. Roughly, 30 percent of royalties are
currently going into the Permanent Fund.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS explained that APFPA changes the
"plumbing" slightly by putting all of the royalties and
production taxes into the Permanent Fund. Out of the corpus of
the Permanent Fund comes the same statutory net income that goes
to the earnings reserve. He added that out of the earnings
reserve comes the dividend payment, which is 50 percent of last
year's royalties, and a steady-state $3.3 billion to the general
fund.
10:02:40 AM
CHAIR STOLTZE requested that Attorney General Richards clarify
what goes into the "corpus."
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS explained that there still is a
mechanism for inflation-proofing in the model. The state needs
to be confident that the earnings reserve has enough money that
it can meet its cash calls, which includes the dividend payout
and the $3.3 billion to the general fund. He said, "We change
inflation-proofing that exists now by eliminating that
provision, but instead, we have a provision that, when the
earnings reserve is greater than four times the $3.3 billion
payout, everything extra in the earnings reserve goes back into
the corpus." Rather than an annual inflation-proofing, there is
a delayed inflation-proofing mechanism that occurs over time.
10:04:01 AM
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI referred to the fall forecast and said he
is, "Trying to model those numbers." He asked if 75 percent of
the $650-million mineral royalties in 2016 would be put into the
earnings reserve.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS answered yes.
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked if 100 percent of the $172-million
production taxes also goes into the Earnings Reserve and then
the dividend is calculated by dividing by two.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS corrected that only the royalties are
divided by two.
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked if the dividend is calculated based
on only the royalties.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS answered yes.
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked if the royalties were roughly $500
million would half of that goes to dividends.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS answered yes.
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI divided $250 million by 750,000 Alaskans to
get a total of $300 to $400 for a dividend.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK clarified that the 50 percent number was
of the total royalties. If oil prices remain at $30 per barrel,
the dividend will be low.
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked if under the 2016 forecast, the
dividend would have been about $300 to $500.
COMMISSIONER HOFFBECK answered yes.
SENATOR COGHILL voiced concern about shifting risk to the
Permanent Fund to stabilize government. He asserted that there
has to be a balance.
CHAIR STOLTZE opined that the questions from the committee were
educational and not confrontational.
SENATOR MCGUIRE agreed with Senator Coghill. She opined that
there has to be a conversation with the public on the state's
cash flow. She pointed out that if royalties are connected to
the PFD check, a new chapter is created in Alaska where the PFD
absorbs the risk, the amount of government take will be lowered
and it will be less stable. She remarked that there are four
versions of using the state's wealth to fund government that all
treat the PFD differently.
10:09:14 AM
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS said both the governor's proposal and
Senator McGuire's proposal can accommodate any number of ways to
calculate the dividend, but there are consequences that must be
considered depending on the amount of money that would go to the
general fund versus to dividends and the timing of those cash
flows.
SENATOR COGHILL remarked that discussions on the level of
services the state should provide and on how the state's
sovereign wealth will be used to stabilize government will be
rough.
10:12:36 AM
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS discussed how the state has
historically had a fiscal rule for saving 30 percent of
royalties, but there has been no fiscal rule for spending out of
the Permanent Fund. In researching fiscal rules for how to
spend, the economic research group and the administration looked
at two ways to do so. One method is to consider the percentage
of market value (POMV), which is sustainable and will protect
the value of the fund. The other method is what the APFPA does,
the fixed method that treats the savings as an annuity.
He highlighted the attributes and risks of a POMV versus a fixed
draw. The amount that comes out of the POMV fund self-adjusts
and the risk lies with the state budget. With a fixed draw, the
risk lies with the PFD and provides stability for the budget. He
added that the governor's plan builds in a periodic-review
mechanism as well.
He showed a graph of year-to-year budget volatility under both
schemes, which showed more volatility in the budget under POMV
and less volatility in the budget under a fixed draw. He stated
that the Governor's plan maintains that the state should use its
sovereign wealth assets to buffet volatility by putting
petroleum revenues into them and then drawing out a percentage
or fixed draw.
He stressed that the math calculations for POMV get very
complicated and a periodic review is needed for the amount of
the POMV draw. He cautioned that the POMV method needs to be
done on the value of Permanent Fund assets, less debt.
10:17:47 AM
He set forth that the Governor's plan is the better one because
the POMV plan, "Gets you most of the way there on a rule-based
framework," but it does not address the long-term problem of
oil-price volatility; it adds revenue, but does not address
volatility and works when oil prices are low, but not when oil
prices are high.
10:19:16 AM
CHAIR STOLTZE suggested that a revenue/spending limit mechanism
be included. He asked if Attorney General Richards was amenable
to his suggestion.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS offered to look at Chair Stoltze's
suggestion.
CHAIR STOLTZE opined that Alaskans would be amenable to his
proposal.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS replied that volatility could be
addressed in a number of ways: spending limits; endowment draw
rules; or as in the Governor's plan, an annuity concept.
SENATOR MCGUIRE voiced appreciation for the discussion. She said
she has considered a range in SB 114 that would be subject to
annual review by a board of financial experts. She agreed with
building in safety measures. She stated that she thought the
annuity concept would work.
10:21:01 AM
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS said that finding a way to adjust the
POMV payment up or down as needed is challenging and has not
been discovered. He suggested using a period review unless the
formula could be determined.
He reported that the Governor's annuity model assumes that the
starting value of the Permanent Fund (on the target date) is $55
billion and includes $45 billion in the corpus, $7 billion in
earnings reserve, and a $3 billion transfer from the CBR to the
earnings reserve in order to ensure that the earnings reserve is
large enough that there is a high probability that the state
will ride out low probability, bad stock market events, even if
they occur, to maintain a stable system.
He specified that the financial model assumes an inflation rate
of 2.25 percent. He listed the total investment return rate over
10 years at 6.9 percent and the statutory net income at 6.01
percent.
10:24:22 AM
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked if the total value of the Permanent
Fund was $49 billion and if the earnings reserve was included.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS specified that the Permanent Fund was
$49.175 billion.
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked if the Permanent Fund has dropped $6
billion.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS answered that the Permanent Fund has
dropped $3 billion because $3 billion of it is the transfer from
the CBR. He detailed that the end of FY 16 was used for the
projected ending value.
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked how another drop would affect the
fund and if more would have to be pulled from the CBR.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS replied that there are several ways to
think of it and one is the raw numbers. He said reducing the
total value of the fund in the annuity calculations by $3
billion, the sustainable draw would be roughly reduced by $100
million.
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI asked that instead of pulling $3.3 billion,
$3.2 billion would be pulled out.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS concurred with Senator Wielechowski,
He emphasized the importance of picking a target date. He shared
details of the analysis and the predicted returns. He said he
does not worry about short-term drop offs, but whether the
earnings reserve is big enough to preserve the POMV model or the
fixed-draw model. He set forth that the $3-billion draw provides
a cushion.
10:27:57 AM
He turned to the petroleum model and how the oil price is
calculated. He said for production volumes and costs, the same
forecast as the Revenue Sources Book is used. He noted that the
governor's plan used the Economic Research Group for the
modeling. He specified that the mean value of oil is about $56
per barrel.
He summarized that the governor's plan makes few changes from
the status quo base formula. He noted that the rules-based
framework is constitutional in the form of its savings rule at
25 percent of royalties. He detailed that approximately 35 years
ago the Legislature overlaid, on top of a constitutional system,
a statutory system subject to change by majority vote. The
statutory system did a couple of things: inflation-proofed the
fund, provided for a dividend, and was developed around the idea
that the Legislature does not spend the earnings reserve except
for inflation-proofing and dividends; even though it only
required a majority vote not to follow the rules-based system,
legislatures did through custom and expectation. He said the
amazing outcome for the state has resulted in having $49 billion
in savings.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS set forth that today, SB 128 proposes
to slightly modify the rules by adding an increase of what goes
into the fund from 30 percent of royalties to half of the
royalties and all of the production taxes, and devise a spending
rule that takes money out of the fund under a formulaic
calculation meant to be sustainable for general fund spending.
He opined that the governor's plan is not complex, is
understandable, and is a variation of the existing plan with the
added spending rule.
10:32:53 AM
CHAIR STOLTZE announced that the presentation would continue at
the next meeting. He requested to hear legal opinions regarding
SB 128.
ATTORNEY GENERAL RICHARDS agreed to provide them.
10:36:47 AM
CHAIR STOLTZE noted that the next referral of the bill is to the
Senate Finance Committee. He disclosed that the Senate State
Affairs Committee would spend several weeks on the bill and
would plan to hear from the public as well. He suggested that
Attorney General Richards talk to people that were architects of
the Permanent Fund.
[SB 128 was held in committee.]
| Document Name | Date/Time | Subjects |
|---|---|---|
| SB 128 Comm. Hoffbeck & AG Richards - Powerpoint Presentation to SSTA - 1-28-2016.pdf |
SSTA 1/28/2016 9:00:00 AM |
SB 128 |
| SB 128 Sectional Analysis by LAW to SSTA - 1-27-2016.pdf |
SSTA 1/28/2016 9:00:00 AM |
SB 128 |
| SB 128 AG Letter to House Finance Co-Chairs re CBR Sweep 1-25-16.pdf |
SSTA 1/28/2016 9:00:00 AM |
SB 128 |
| SB 128 Legislative Legal Services Memo to Wielechowski 16-043lem - CBR PFD - 1-26-2016.pdf |
SSTA 1/28/2016 9:00:00 AM |
SB 128 |